← Grand Archive Regional Championship
Water AlliesTier 1
at Grand Archive Regional Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 21.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 17.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 48 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 48 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteemed Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Lucent Arbiter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Benevolent Battle Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scale of Souls | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Cruiser | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hypothermia | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cascading Round | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |